Fuel oil prices and refined petroleum product costs in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are increasingly influenced by broader fluctuations in the global crude oil market and refined product benchmarks in 2025. As Brent crude and OPEC reference prices adjust, downstream prices—including fuel oil—are reflecting these shifts.

The latest global oil data show that benchmark crude prices have generally been trading above $60 per barrel in recent months, despite volatility caused by supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical pressures. OilPrice.com+1

In the Middle East and Arabian Gulf region, refined product price indices—including fuel oil (often referenced in OPEC statistical tables)—have shown modest movement through the summer of 2025. For example, OPEC price tables indicate that fuel oil (3.0% sulfur) cargoes on the FOB Arab Gulf benchmark were averaging approximately $67.70 per barrel in July 2025, indicating a slight increase from previous months but still weighing below mid-2024 levels. OPEC

Although specific retail fuel price data in the UAE primarily reports on petrol and diesel (e.g., Super and Special grades), the underlying product price trend suggests that heavier fuel oil and industrial fuel costs remain closely tied to these broader crude dynamics.

What Is Driving UAE Fuel Oil Pricing?

Several key factors currently shaping refined product pricing – including fuel oil – are:

• Global crude price volatility: Brent and Oman/Dubai benchmarks have shown downward pressure at times in 2025, influenced by global supply outpacing demand and OPEC+ policy decisions. Midland Reporter-Telegram+1

• Regional refinery output: Gulf refiners adjust throughput and inventories based on summer seasonal demand and export opportunities.

• OPEC and production policies: OPEC+ output decisions influence crude and refined spreads, affecting downstream product pricing. Peak Oil Barrel

Implications for Industrial Buyers and Exporters

For industrial buyers, marine fuel consumers, and petrochemical firms in the UAE and wider Middle East:

• Fuel oil pricing can influence operational costs for industrial furnaces and power generation

• Exporters and traders need to monitor refined product spreads relative to crude benchmarks to make smarter trading and hedging decisions

• Longer-term contracts should consider volatility risk, especially given ongoing global oversupply trends and geopolitical uncertainties
  
  
  
  

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